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The 98th Academy Awards kick off tonight, and the whole CoolCuration team has pooled our collective brainpower to produce our Oscars 2026 predictions across the four biggest categories. We've weighed up precursor awards, prediction market data, gut instinct and a healthy dose of wishful thinking to land on our picks. One of them goes firmly against the bookmakers. Read on to see where we're putting our (hypothetical) money, and we'll be back tomorrow with a follow-up to see how spectacularly right (or wrong) we were.
Why prediction markets matter this year
If you've been paying attention to this year's awards season, you'll have noticed that prediction markets have become a genuine part of the conversation. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen trading volumes explode. On Polymarket alone, over $30 million has been wagered on the Best Picture outcome, up from around $5 million last year. These aren't casual office sweepstakes any more. Real money is moving, and the odds shift in real time as new information lands.
That matters because it gives us a sharper lens than traditional punditry alone. When thousands of people are putting actual cash behind their picks, the resulting odds tend to be surprisingly accurate. Not infallible, though. The markets have blind spots, and momentum can warp prices in ways that don't always reflect how voters actually filled in their ballots. Oscar voting closed on 5 March, which means anything that happened after that date is noise as far as the actual result is concerned, even if the markets keep reacting to it.
With that in mind, here's where the CoolCuration team has landed.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Our confidence: 70%
This is the closest thing to a lock on tonight's card. Jessie Buckley has swept almost every major precursor for her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao's Hamnet, picking up wins at the SAG Awards, the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes. Prediction markets have her as high as 97% on some platforms, which tells you just how dominant her run has been.
The team's confidence sits a little lower than that, mainly because a few of us weren't totally sold on the film itself. But individual performance awards have their own logic, and Buckley's turn is the kind of raw, emotionally devastating work the Academy loves to reward. She is the clear frontrunner and we'd be genuinely stunned if she didn't take this one home. We reviewed Hamnet recently on the blog, and while the film has its flaws, Buckley's performance was never one of them. Read our full Hamnet film review here.
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Our confidence: 76%
This category has been a rollercoaster. Timothée Chalamet looked like the favourite for months after his turn in Marty Supreme, but Michael B. Jordan flipped the script with his SAG Award win and hasn't looked back. Kalshi currently has Jordan at around 58%, with Chalamet trailing at roughly 32%.
Our team is more bullish on Jordan than the markets are, and here's why. Sinners earned a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, the most in Academy Awards history. The film's momentum is real and sustained. Jordan plays dual roles as twins Smoke and Stack, and the performance has drawn praise for both its physicality and emotional depth. Yes, supernatural and horror-adjacent films have historically struggled at the Oscars. But the sheer volume of nominations, the SAG win, and the cultural moment around the film all point in one direction. We think Jordan takes it.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Our confidence: 59%
Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the most decorated directors never to have won an Oscar. He's racked up 14 nominations across his career without a single win, a streak that puts him in the company of Alfred Hitchcock and Stanley Kubrick. Prediction markets have him at a staggering 91% to finally break through tonight for One Battle After Another.
The team agrees he's the favourite, but our confidence is lower than the market price suggests. There's a lingering sense that the Academy could split: rewarding Anderson for direction while handing Best Picture elsewhere. That kind of split has happened before, and when a film like Sinners is generating this much heat, nothing is certain. That said, the BAFTA win, the critical consensus, and the "overdue" narrative all work powerfully in Anderson's favour. We expect him to win, but we wouldn't bet the house on it.
Best Picture: Sinners
Our confidence: 47%
Here's where we go bold.
The bookmakers have One Battle After Another at roughly 76% to win Best Picture. Leading prediction markets tell a similar story, giving Anderson's film about a 75% chance of taking the top prize. Sinners sits at under 25% on most platforms. Vegas says this isn't even close.
We disagree. Not with overwhelming confidence, admittedly, but enough to call it. Sinners has the most nominations in Oscar history. It smashed the box office. Its performances, direction and cultural significance have been discussed endlessly. Over 80% of our team's deliberation came down to a straight fight between these two films, and while One Battle After Another is a brilliant piece of work, we think Sinners has the edge when it comes to the kind of broad, passionate support that wins Best Picture under the preferential ballot system.
Best Picture isn't just about who gets the most first-place votes. It's about who the fewest voters actively dislike. Sinners is the sort of film that could rank highly on almost everyone's ballot, even if it isn't everyone's number one. That consensus appeal is a powerful weapon, and it's the main reason we're tipping it to pull off what the markets consider an upset.
We could be completely wrong. The odds say we probably are. But that's what makes predictions fun.
How to follow the results
The 98th Academy Awards air tonight at 11pm GMT on ABC in the US, hosted by Conan O'Brien for the second year running. If you're in the UK, keep an eye on Sky or catch up via social media. We'll be watching, scoring our picks, and publishing a follow-up piece tomorrow to see how we did. If prediction markets are your thing, platforms like Polymarket offer live odds that update throughout the ceremony.
Prediction markets and betting carry financial risk. This article is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice.
Frequently asked questions
What are the Oscars 2026 predictions for Best Picture?
Most prediction markets and bookmakers favour One Battle After Another at around 75-77% odds. Sinners is the main challenger at roughly 24%. The CoolCuration team has gone against the grain and tipped Sinners for the upset.
Who is the favourite for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars?
Michael B. Jordan is the current favourite for his dual role in Sinners, sitting at around 58% on Kalshi and Polymarket. Timothée Chalamet trails at approximately 32% for Marty Supreme.
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress?
All signs point to yes. Buckley has won every major precursor award for her role in Hamnet and sits at around 97% on prediction markets. An upset here would be one of the biggest in recent Oscar history.
Has Paul Thomas Anderson ever won an Oscar?
No. Despite 14 career nominations, Anderson has never won a competitive Academy Award. He is widely tipped to break that streak tonight for One Battle After Another, with prediction markets placing him at roughly 91%.
What are prediction markets and how do they work for the Oscars?
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to buy and sell contracts based on the probability of real-world outcomes. Prices reflect the crowd's collective estimate of what's likely to happen. For the Oscars, this means you can see live odds for every category, updated in real time as new information emerges.
How many nominations does Sinners have?
Sinners received 16 nominations at the 98th Academy Awards, the most in Oscar history. The previous record of 14 was shared by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land.
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