Oscars 2026 Winners: How Our Predictions Scored 3 Out of 4

Last updated: 16 March 2026

By Tristan · Arts, exhibitions and creative culture

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The Oscars 2026 winners have been announced, the speeches have been made, and Conan O'Brien has packed away his notes for another year. Yesterday we published our team's Oscars 2026 predictions and promised we'd come back with an honest appraisal of how we did. The short version: 3 out of 4 in the major categories. The slightly longer version: we nailed the acting and directing picks, but our bold Best Picture call didn't quite come off. Here's the full breakdown.

The scorecard

We made four predictions across the biggest categories. Let's run through them one by one.

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) — correct

Our prediction: Jessie Buckley at 70% confidence. Result: Buckley wins.

This was always the safest pick on our card, and it played out exactly as expected. Jessie Buckley won Best Actress for her devastating turn as Agnes Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao's Hamnet, capping a precursor sweep that included wins at the SAG Awards, BAFTAs and Golden Globes. Prediction markets had her as high as 97%, and the result was never really in doubt.

If anything, our 70% confidence was too conservative. We let some mild reservations about the film itself drag down our number, but as we said at the time, this was always about the individual performance rather than the overall picture. Buckley delivered, and the Academy agreed. We gave Hamnet a 4 out of 5 in our review, and it's hard to argue with that score when you look at what Buckley does with the material.

Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) — correct

Our prediction: Michael B. Jordan at 76% confidence. Result: Jordan wins.

This one felt right, and we're pleased we went more bullish than the markets. Kalshi and Polymarket had Jordan at around 58% heading into the ceremony. We gave him 76%. In the end, the SAG Award momentum proved decisive, and Jordan collected his first Oscar for his dual role as twins Smoke and Stack.

Jordan's acceptance speech drew a direct line from Sidney Poitier and Denzel Washington through to his own win, which was a genuinely powerful moment. The Best Actor race had been volatile all season, with Timothée Chalamet looking locked in for months before Jordan's late surge. Our team read the momentum correctly, and the preferential ballot didn't throw up a surprise from Leonardo DiCaprio or anyone else.

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) — correct

Our prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson at 59% confidence. Result: Anderson wins.

Paul Thomas Anderson finally has an Oscar. In fact, he has three from a single night: Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture (as producer). After 14 career nominations without a win, the Academy finally gave him the recognition his body of work has long warranted. Prediction markets had him at 91% for Best Director, and he was comfortably the favourite throughout the run-in.

Our 59% confidence was the lowest of our four picks, and in retrospect it was too cautious. We suspected a potential split between Best Director and Best Picture, which would have complicated things. Instead, One Battle After Another swept both, and Anderson's acceptance speech for Best Picture referenced the legendary 1975 lineup to make the point that there's no definitive "best" among great films. A classy way to close out the night.

Best Picture: One Battle After Another — we got this one wrong

Our prediction: Sinners at 47% confidence. Result: One Battle After Another wins.

Here's where our bold call came unstuck. We tipped Sinners for Best Picture, going against bookmakers who had One Battle After Another at around 76%. The prediction markets were right; we were wrong.

One Battle After Another took home six Oscars on the night, making it the clear overall winner. Sinners picked up four, including Best Actor, Best Cinematography (with Autumn Durald Arkapaw making history as the first woman to win that award), Best Original Score for Ludwig Göransson, and Best Original Screenplay. That's an impressive haul for a film that broke the all-time nominations record with 16, but it wasn't enough for the top prize.

In fairness, we flagged the risk. Our 47% confidence meant we thought there was a better-than-even chance we'd be wrong, and we explicitly noted that the odds were against us. The preferential ballot argument for Sinners having broad consensus appeal didn't quite hold up against the sheer weight of support for Anderson's film. Sometimes the favourite wins because the favourite is the best horse in the race. Fair play.

What prediction markets got right (and almost wrong)

This was a strong year for the prediction markets. Polymarket, Kalshi and the bookmakers all called the four major categories correctly. Their Best Actress and Best Director lines were essentially unbeatable, and Best Picture was right at the price.

The one area where the markets wobbled was Best Actor, where Chalamet's odds cratered in the final two weeks after Jordan's SAG win. As we noted yesterday, Oscar ballots closed on 5 March, meaning the late market movement was driven by vibes rather than voter behaviour. The final result matched the late momentum rather than the pre-ballot favourite, which is an interesting lesson for next year: sometimes the last big precursor really does tell you everything you need to know, even if the vote was already locked in before the price moved.

For the full breakdown of our pre-ceremony picks, including the reasoning behind our contrarian Best Picture call, read our original Oscars 2026 predictions here.

Final thoughts

Three out of four. We'll take it. The Best Picture miss stings slightly, but going contrarian and being transparent about it is more fun than playing it safe and claiming credit for backing the obvious favourite. We said we'd follow up honestly, so here we are.

The 98th Academy Awards were one of the better ceremonies in recent memory, with genuine tension in at least two categories and some landmark wins. Michael B. Jordan and Sinners made history even without the top prize, Autumn Durald Arkapaw's cinematography win broke a barrier that was long overdue, and Paul Thomas Anderson can finally stop being the most decorated director never to have won an Oscar.

We'll be back when award season rolls around again. Until then, if prediction markets piqued your interest, you might enjoy our round-up of the best referral offers in the UK for 2026, including some of the investment and trading platforms where market thinking is part of the fun.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?

One Battle After Another, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, won Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The film took home six Oscars in total, including Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Who won Best Actor at the Oscars 2026?

Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor for his dual role as twins Smoke and Stack in Sinners. It was his first Academy Award.

Who won Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars?

Jessie Buckley won Best Actress for her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet, directed by Chloé Zhao. Buckley had swept virtually every major precursor award during the season.

How many Oscars did Sinners win?

Sinners won four Oscars: Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Best Cinematography (Autumn Durald Arkapaw), Best Original Score (Ludwig Göransson) and Best Original Screenplay. Despite holding the record for the most nominations in Oscar history with 16, it did not win Best Picture.

How many Oscars did One Battle After Another win?

One Battle After Another won six Oscars: Best Picture, Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Best Adapted Screenplay (Paul Thomas Anderson), Best Supporting Actor (Sean Penn), Best Film Editing and Best Casting.

Was Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first woman to win Best Cinematography?

Yes. Autumn Durald Arkapaw became the first woman to win the Academy Award for Best Cinematography, for her work on Sinners.

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