Last updated: 20 October 2026. I checked every confirmed measure on this page against GOV.UK that day.

By Stiv · Design, technology and personal finance

Affiliate disclosure: This article contains affiliate and referral links, which are paid links. If you click one and buy or sign up, I earn a commission or referral bonus at no extra cost to you. Brands don't choose what I feature or what I say about them.

This is general information, not tax or financial advice. CoolCuration is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Nothing in the Budget is certain until the Chancellor announces it, so please do not move money on the strength of a rumour.

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What the Chancellor could change, and what is already settled

These are my Autumn Budget predictions, built from what the newspapers have reported and what the government has already put in writing. John Healey delivers his first Budget as Chancellor on Wednesday 28 October 2026. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishes its forecast the same day. Most of the reports below are unconfirmed, so I have marked each one by how solid it is.

Autumn Budget predictions at a glance

Here is every rumour with serious coverage before Budget day, with its status on 20 October. "Reported" means a newspaper says the Treasury is considering it. "Ruled out" means the same newspapers now say the Chancellor has dropped it, which is still short of an official denial.

Further down, I go through each one alongside the changes that are already law or already announced. Those are the parts you can plan around.

Why this Budget is different

This is the first Budget since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister in July 2026. It is also John Healey's first as Chancellor. His predecessor, Rachel Reeves, set most of the tax changes now coming into force in her November 2025 Budget.

The new government has already made some cost-of-living moves outside a Budget. According to Which?, these include a £2 cap on most bus fares in England and VAT removed from electricity bills. Pubs and clubs get a business rates cut, and the rules making subscriptions easier to cancel now start in January 2027.

However, the public finances are tight. The investment platform interactive investor points to higher borrowing costs and slower growth. Borrowing in August also came in £3.5 billion above expectations. Meanwhile, Labour's manifesto rules out raising Income Tax, employee National Insurance or VAT. So most commentators expect any new tax to land on savings, property, investments or business instead.

Income Tax and the Personal Allowance

The rates themselves are very unlikely to move, given the manifesto pledge. The thresholds are a different story. The Personal Allowance is £12,570 and the higher rate starts at £50,271. Both are frozen until April 2031 under the 2025 Budget, according to GOV.UK. As a result, every pay rise pulls a little more of your income into tax.

Burnham has promised to review the Personal Allowance at this Budget, Which? reports. However, he called it "difficult" and made no commitment. Separately, the full new State Pension is close to overtaking the allowance. At the Labour conference, Burnham promised that lower-income pensioners would not start paying Income Tax during this Parliament. The Chartered Institute of Payroll Professionals reported the pledge. The government has not yet said how that will work, so watch for it on the day.

Capital Gains Tax: the biggest rumour that probably won't happen

According to GOV.UK, Capital Gains Tax is 18% for basic rate taxpayers and 24% above that. The tax-free allowance is £3,000. Labour figures including the MP Louise Haigh want it lined up with Income Tax, which would mean 20%, 40% and 45%.

Even so, City AM reported on 13 October that Healey had ruled that out internally, citing the Financial Times. The Telegraph has since suggested a smaller rise could still happen. In short, a jump to 40% now looks unlikely. A smaller rise, or new rules on how gains are counted, still looks possible.

The mansion tax, and the £1.5 million question

The mansion tax is already set. Its official name is the High Value Council Tax Surcharge. It starts in April 2028 for homes in England worth £2 million or more. Owners pay it on top of their normal Council Tax:

• £2,500 a year for homes worth £2 million to £2.5 million
• £3,500 for £2.5 million to £3.5 million
• £5,000 for £3.5 million to £5 million
• £7,500 for £5 million and above

The Times reported in September that Healey was looking at cutting the threshold to £1.5 million. Then, on 11 October, City AM reported that he had ruled it out, citing the Sunday Times and the Financial Times. Therefore the £2 million line looks safe for this Budget, although the details of reliefs and exemptions could still change.

ISAs and savings: what is already coming in April 2027

No specific new ISA rumour has emerged this autumn. Instead, the big ISA change came in last year's Budget and starts on 6 April 2027. From then, savers under 65 can put no more than £12,000 a year into a cash ISA, according to the ISA newsletter from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Savers aged 65 and over keep the full £20,000, and the overall ISA allowance stays at £20,000 until April 2031.

The tax on savings interest outside an ISA also rises on 6 April 2027. The rates go from 20%, 40% and 45% to 22%, 42% and 47%, as set out in HMRC's policy paper. The same rise applies to rental income. Dividend tax went up 2 points earlier, on 6 April 2026, which my guide to the dividend tax rise covers in detail.

That leaves the 2026/27 tax year as the last one with the full £20,000 cash ISA allowance for under-65s. My ISA allowance deadline guide covers how the allowance works and when it resets. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future.

Pensions: two changes already set, and a lump sum rumour

Two pension changes are already in place for later years. First, most unused pension funds and death benefits will count towards your estate for Inheritance Tax from 6 April 2027, says HMRC. Second, salary sacrifice pension contributions above £2,000 a year lose their National Insurance relief from April 2029. The government's salary sacrifice paper sets out how it works.

The rumour is a cut to the tax-free lump sum. The interactive investor analysis mentions speculation that the £268,275 cap could come down. Nobody in government has confirmed it. Torsten Bell, the Pensions Minister, has said savers have been "very badly let down by newspapers" over this kind of story. On the State Pension, Burnham told the Labour conference that the triple lock stays for this Parliament. After that, from April 2030, average earnings would drop out of the formula.

Fuel duty and energy bills

Fuel duty is 52.95p a litre for petrol and diesel until 31 December 2026, according to HMRC's amended rates. Unless the Budget changes it, duty then rises to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and 57.95p on 1 March 2027. The same page says the government "will confirm final rates at Budget 2026". So fuel duty is one of the most likely things to change on the day. The Evening Standard says The Times expects a freeze.

On energy, VAT has already come off household electricity bills from 1 October 2026, which my October price cap guide explains. The Guardian has reported that the £150 Warm Home Discount could get an extra £100, paid for by the taxpayer. My Warm Home Discount guide covers who qualifies for the £150 now. Meanwhile, switching supplier is the quickest way to cut your own bill, whatever the Budget does. New Octopus customers get £50 credit through my Octopus referral page.

Business, the self-employed and online sellers

Most of the business rumours come from Which?'s round-up of press reports:

• Small business rates: the Sunday Times reports the threshold could rise from £12,000 to £18,000 of rateable value. That would take about 75,000 properties out of business rates.
• Online marketplaces: The Times reports that platforms such as Amazon and eBay could have to collect VAT for sellers with turnover over £90,000. That could raise up to £1 billion.
• Banks: the Guardian reports the bank surcharge on profits could go back up from 3% to 8%, raising over £2 billion a year.
• Family firms: the Treasury is reportedly looking at share buy-backs. Retiring owners currently sell shares back to the company and pay Capital Gains Tax rather than Income Tax.

If you file a tax return, none of this changes your 2025/26 deadlines. My last minute tax return guide covers filing quickly if January catches you out.

Student loans, railcards and first-time buyers

Three smaller items could affect a lot of households. First, the Plan 2 student loan repayment threshold stays at £29,835 until April 2030. According to Which?, the Treasury Committee has called reversing that freeze a "moral duty". Second, the Mirror reports early talks on a railcard for adults aged 31 to 59. Third, the costs and launch date of the "Your First Home" scheme in England are due at the Budget. It offers a 2.5% deposit and a 20% government-backed equity loan on new-build homes.

How to read Autumn Budget predictions

Pre-Budget stories are not always right. In November 2025, for example, reports that Rachel Reeves would raise Income Tax rates turned out to be wrong. So I would not move money, sell investments or change a pension because of a headline this week.

Instead, it helps to sort the rumours into three groups. The changes already in law, like the cash ISA limit and the pension Inheritance Tax rules, are the ones to plan around now. The reported ones are worth knowing about but not acting on. And anything announced on the day usually starts later, often on 6 April. My guide to the 2025 Budget covers the changes Rachel Reeves set in motion, many of which take effect over the next three years.

Once the speech is over, I will check these Autumn Budget predictions against what the Chancellor announced. The full rundown goes up on Budget day, with every figure taken from the GOV.UK Budget documents and the OBR forecast.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Autumn Budget 2026?

Wednesday 28 October 2026. The Chancellor, John Healey, confirmed the date in a letter to the Treasury Committee on 31 July 2026. The speech normally follows Prime Minister's Questions, at around 12:30pm.

Will Income Tax go up in the Budget?

The rates are unlikely to rise, because Labour's manifesto rules out higher Income Tax, employee National Insurance and VAT. The thresholds are frozen until April 2031, though, so more of your pay gets taxed as wages rise.

Is Capital Gains Tax going up?

Possibly, but not to Income Tax levels. The Financial Times reported that Healey ruled out matching Capital Gains Tax to Income Tax. Even so, the Telegraph says a smaller rise is still possible. Current rates are 18% and 24%.

Will the cash ISA allowance change?

It already has, from 6 April 2027. Savers under 65 will be able to put up to £12,000 a year into a cash ISA, out of an overall £20,000 ISA allowance. The full £20,000 still applies until 5 April 2027.

Is fuel duty going up in January?

Under the current schedule, yes: from 52.95p to 55.95p a litre on 1 January 2027, then 57.95p on 1 March 2027. HMRC says the government will confirm the final rates at this Budget, and The Times has reported a freeze is likely.

Will the Budget lower the mansion tax threshold?

Probably not. Reports in October said Healey had ruled out cutting the £2 million threshold to £1.5 million. The surcharge starts in April 2028 and costs from £2,500 to £7,500 a year.

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This article is general information, not tax or financial advice, and CoolCuration is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. The measures marked as reported or ruled out are newspaper reports, not government announcements, and any of them could change on Budget day. Rates, allowances and terms can change, so check GOV.UK before you act, and consider a qualified financial adviser for your own circumstances. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. This article contains affiliate and referral links, which are paid links. If you click one and buy or sign up, I earn a commission or referral bonus at no extra cost to you. Brands don't choose what I feature or what I say about them. Cover photograph: Gladstone's Red Box from The National Archives, no known copyright restrictions, cropped and blurred.

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